[sudo-discuss] Bubble

[johanna faust]

" all the decadence and avarice now will seem like a hazy impossible dream"

decadence and avarice?  oh, yeah --

but seriously, i have always dreamt of that. many thoughts.  lets have a
workshop thereupon.



i know, i'm one to talk.  still had to throw it out there.

On Fri, Mar 27, 2015 at 11:02 AM, Praveen Sinha <dmhomee at gmail.com> wrote:

> I lived through both the peak and bust in the bay area the first time.
> And while every crash is very different in terms of who gets impacted and
> how the crisis is managed, I'll share my experiences.  The dotcom crash
> left silicon valley with a 30% unemployment rate in the tech industry for
> about 6 long months.  The shape of a new crash could be very different.
>
> - crisis: be prepared for a bloodbath: As much as no housing sucks, it
> sucks much much more to have no avenues for income.  A crash means that you
> and your boss are laid off, and so is everyone else... But also the people
> that were funding your company have dried up and closed shop and are out on
> the street as well.  And the people funding them are cutting their losses
> and closing up shop.   The wealthy patrons that funded your pet projects
> are now in the same boat as you are.  The rich and powerful people that you
> hated, and likewise they hated you -- now you are both clinging to each
> other realizing that you are in the same boat and dependent on each other.
> Everything will be inverted -- all the decadence and avarice now will seem
> like a hazy impossible dream.
> - challenge: be prepared to reposition your funding sources:  for a
> hackerspace, all your tech patrons may be dried up for an extended period
> of time.  However, it may be a good time to leverage in other industries
> somehow, like biotech or health care
> - opportunity: you'll have a flood of really smart and talented people
> that now need new opportunity.  Do as much as possible to develop this
> human capital in creative alternative ways for the long term.
> - opportunity: landlords will start dropping rent as people start leaving
> the bay area in droves because the rent is always too damn high.  If you
> can ride it out, and if you can get your funding positioned right, there
> will be lots of golden opportunities to acquire stuff.  For example,
> noisebridge was able to get it's current place during the peak of the 2008
> crash
> - opportunity:  we didn't have bitcoin and timebanks with wide acceptance
> the last couple of times......
> - major challenge:  Crashes suck, but you can live through it.  A crash +
> ongoing natural disaster = bad shit.  If a crash and extended water crisis
> happen at the same time, we could be living in a totally different reality
> this time next year.  That said, I can't think of any better people that
> I'd want to live through it with!
>
> Love,
> Praveen
>
> On Fri, Mar 27, 2015 at 10:20 AM, mattsenate at gmail.com <
> mattsenate at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Anyone else notice that the NASDAQ Composite Index has about reached the
>> nominal peak of the dotcom boom? It's not at the real value peak (i.e.
>> adjusted for inflation), but still pretty peakish:
>>
>>
>> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=COMP&insttype=Index&freq=2&show=&time=20
>>
>> It seems to me that additional market forces caused by the likes of a
>> crisis in student debt or perhaps a natural disaster, such as an
>> earthquake, could hasten the inevitable burst. Otherwise we may be looking
>> at just a few years before a substantial fall in the stock market,
>> devaluation of over-inflated "tech" companies, subsided startup investment,
>> decrease in technology field employment, or other similar things...
>>
>> What might one do to prepare, as if not soon, at least inevitably there
>> will be some stock market crash that will largely affect the wide bay area
>> economy?
>>
>> // Matt
>>
>>
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>
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-- 
*Be seeing you.*
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