[sudo-discuss] new occuption in SF: #gezigardens
GtwoG PublicOhOne
g2g-public01 at att.net
Mon Jun 10 16:32:42 PDT 2013
That $5,000/month 2-BR apartment translates to $60K/year for rent, which
means that the owner isn't even going to look at anyone with an income
below $180K, or a married couple with joint income of $180K and perfect
credit ratings.
Re. "many levels of rich": the average millionaire is closer to his/her
gardener in terms of net worth, than to the plutocrats (but most
millionaires have no clue about this). In any case, there are enough
people in the 1% to account for 95% of the spending in the economy
(keyword search "plutonomy" and look for the report that was leaked from
one of the major banks on that topic), so the bottom 99% is almost
irrelevant ("supply and demand" for human lives, again).
Re. "at whatever level a developer wants to provide more housing, I'll
say YES DO IT..." Be careful what you wish for...
Re. "tall buildings..." (preceding email): When the inevitable 7.0 on
either the Hayward or San Andreas occurs, even if the building remains
standing (this can't be taken for granted either, given the problems
with the imported steel in the Bay Bridge) power & water will be out for
weeks, possibly months in some areas. Elevators and air conditioning
won't be working in those buildings. So now you have highrises full of
people, some of whom are elderly, disabled, or have small kids, with no
food or water, and no sanitation. Asking neighbors to carry food up the
stairs might work, but lugging water up ten or twenty flights is a
non-starter (a 2-day supply for one person for drinking and cooking, is
about 25 lbs.).
Even earthquake-denialism doesn't help us, because adding high-rises
adds demand for water, sewer, and parking, all the time. Assuming that
most high-rise residents won't have cars doesn't help much, because some
will, and those will still add up to more cars than there is space to
park them. Water and sewer are the biggies, and any move toward
highrise development will require digging up streets and installing new
water & sewer mains, which translate to higher costs either in rent or
in taxes.
Albert Einstein was a pacifist, and Edward Teller was a hawk. Both
agreed that the exponential function is the most dangerous math on Earth.
-G.
=====
On 13-06-10-Mon 3:41 PM, Sonja Trauss wrote:
> Yeah Jehan that's how I understand it.
>
> Eddie's scenario though is that rich_guy CAN'T move into the nice new
> apt, because before he gets there, some rich_guy_2 moves into the apt
> from Mountain View, and /rich_guy_2 would not have moved into SF if
> the new apartments hadn't been built/.
>
> This is a scenario, so we should explore its antecedents and
> consequences.
>
> My first response is - so what if this happens. In this scenario rents
> go neither up or down. I don't think it's realistic to expect that all
> new building will be taken up like this, but, since I don't know the
> future, it's worth imagining this extreme outcome and asking, is it
> bad? if it is bad, is it so bad that we shouldn't take the risk of it
> happening? I don't see it as bad. Like I said before, it will have no
> net affect on rent, so we lose nothing, and there might be ancillary
> benefits: my $13 jam business might improve, or my $75/ hour personal
> yoga coach business. Maybe I'm a social worker, and this means there
> will be more money in the city budget for my organization. whatever.
>
> Next, more interestingly, let's consider what could possibly cause
> rich_guy_2's behavior. Usually people move to be closer to work, to be
> closer to some fun city center, to be closer to family, they make the
> decision and then they look for housing. They do not hear of new
> housing being built and say, on that fact alone, 'I will now move!'
>
> If someone hears of new housing being built, and he then says, 'I will
> now move,' it is because he is (1) very strict about only living in
> brand new housing (not likely) or (2) RESPONDING TO AN INCREASE IN
> SUPPLY AT HIS PRICE POINT.
>
> Have you ever heard someone say "there are no available apartments in
> SF"? Of course he doesn't mean there are no available apartments, of
> course there are apartments: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/
> there's a $5000 2 bedroom at the top of the list. What he means is
> "there are no available apartments in SF at my price point." So, this
> person, who wants to spend say, $3000 for a nice 2 bedroom lives
> somewhere else, and waits for the supply of $3000 2 bedroom apartments
> to increase. This is rich_guy_2. This person is currently priced out
> of San Francisco. Hard to believe, but true, there are many levels of
> rich. You can be house shopping and be priced out at almost any price
> point. I'm sympathetic to people that are priced out. I don't want to
> see anyone priced out. I'm not going to discriminate based on income
> high or low. No one should be priced out. If you can pay $300/mo or
> $3000 you should be able to find something you think is reasonable in
> this town. The supply of housing in SF is too small at all but the
> highest price point. At whatever level a developer wants to supply
> more housing, I will say YES. DO IT.
>
> MOREOVER. If it's expensive to build, developers will only be able to
> afford to build high priced projects. One of the things that makes
> building expensive is fighting with neighbors. So its ironic (and a
> little sad) to see people who want lower priced housing doing things
> that make building expensive. I think I said this in another email,
> but if a smaller budget developer wants to build a cheaper project,
> but sees that even the very rich developer can barely get his project
> finished because he has to spend time and resources fighting with
> neighbors, then the smaller developer will be like forget it, I can't
> do this.
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at 1:46 PM, Jehan Tremback
> <jehan.tremback at gmail.com <mailto:jehan.tremback at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> @Eddie- Sorry about the eye! That was the default Ubuntu avatar,
> and it somehow got synced to my email when I ran Pidgin. So the
> eye is actually open source! I'll get rid of it though if you want.
>
> I'll go over this briefly, but there are better resources out there.
>
> Let's say rich guy can afford $3000 dollars a month and wants to
> live in SF. So landlord charges him $3000 for an apartment because
> it isn't a closet. Since there is nowhere else to live in SF, rich
> guy pays this. New luxury building opens across the street with
> really nice new apartments for $3000 a month. Rich guy decides to
> move, and landlord puts apartment back on the market for $3000.
> But because all of the other rich guys are also living in the new
> luxury building, landlord finds no tenants. Next month, landlord
> is forced to lower rent to $2000 and 4 hackers move in. This is
> how the market works.
>
> -Jehan
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at 11:46 AM, Sonja Trauss
> <sonja.trauss at gmail.com <mailto:sonja.trauss at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Ok so your position is that the whole of the new housing will
> be taken up by people who don't currently live in SF, want to,
> but won't move into SF unless new housing is built.
>
> Can you describe what it is about the new housing that will
> make people who already have stable, adequate places to live
> elsewhere move into it, when they've already decided theyre
> not interested in living in any of the currently available sf
> housing? Does this question make sense? What's special about
> the new housing? What would make a person move to SF Only If
> new housing is built? What is the scenario. I can think of
> two. One silly and one not silly.
>
>
> On Sunday, June 9, 2013, Eddie Che wrote:
>
> Oy, greetings. First of all that Eye is really hateful,
> let's tone
> that down a little! I've been against the eye because it
> is oppressive
> so, chill. @Jehan.
>
> Building will increase the population in San Francisco.
> Not house the
> houseless and not bring down rents. These are upscale
> (condos?)
> apartments, bringing the added keyword of gentrification.
>
> I like the Spain example. Government here (County, City,
> State, and
> National) could give land that is being held by it, eg
> around highway
> off-ramps or hills or wherEVER to folks who are
> disenchanted with...
> corporate rule.
>
> "liberating land from private control and corporate
> interests and for
> the common good of all people."
>
> Can we hack that?
> EMCHE, in a tree.
>
> PS by the way, surprising about SF's vacant housing units @
> https://www.baycitizen.org/blogs/pulse-of-the-bay/sf-leads-bay-area-vacant-homes/
>
>
>
> On Sat, Jun 8, 2013 at 6:41 PM, GtwoG PublicOhOne
> <g2g-public01 at att.net> wrote:
> >
> > Imagine a news headline saying "Good news for the
> economy: food prices are
> > up for the third month in a row!" Food-owners would
> celebrate, and
> > foodless-rights advocates would protest, but nothing
> would change unless the
> > entire system of food-speculation was curbed.
> >
> > Or imagine this: Dateline: Marinaleda, Spain.
> Municipal government GIVES
> > dispossessed people the land and building materials to
> build their own
> > homes, and pays contractors to provide assistance with
> the high-skill parts
> > such as plumbing. This is REAL and it's happening NOW.
> >
> > http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22701384
> >
> > "In the wake of Spain's property crash, hundreds of
> thousands of homes have
> > been repossessed. While one regional government says it
> will seize
> > repossessed properties from the banks, a little town is
> doing away with
> > mortgages altogether. ... In Marinaleda, residents like
> 42-year-old
> > father-of-three, David Gonzalez Molina, are building
> their own homes.
> >
> > "The town hall in this ... town an hour-and-a-bit east
> of Seville, has given
> > David 190 sq m (2,000 sq ft) of land. ... The bricks
> and mortar are also a
> > gift... from the regional government of Andalusia. ...
> Only once his home is
> > finished will he start paying 15 euros (£13) [approx.
> $26] a month, to the
> > regional government, to refund the cost of other
> building materials. ...
> >
> > "...[The town's] Mayor Juan Manuel Sanchez Gordillo is
> known for occupying
> > land belonging to the wealthy in Andalusia. ... Last
> summer, he and his
> > left-wing union comrades stole from supermarkets and
> handed out the food to
> > the poor. "I think it is possible that a home should be
> a right, and not a
> > business, in Europe", he argues. Mayor Sanchez Gordillo
> pours scorn on
> > "speculators"....
> >
> > ---
> >
> > Think outside the box, and you might end up thinking
> like Mayor Sanchez
> > Gordillo.
> >
> > What happens when home prices and rents keep increasing
> while average income
> > levels have barely budged since 1974?
> >
> > What happens to the lives of people, when the health of
> an economy in large
> > part depends on relentless increase in the price of a
> vital necessity that
> > is also a fixed resource, such as the square footage in
> which to eat, sleep,
> > and wash?
> >
> > Meanwhile developers are building "luxury" apartments,
> but the number of
> > "affordable" units isn't specified and always turns out
> to be less than
> > first claimed. How is it that anyone has a "right" to
> luxury, at the
> > expense of others' poverty and homelessness?
> >
> > At root, this isn't a race issue of black and white,
> though the guardians of
> > privilege benefit mightily when it's framed that way,
> and people who have
> > common cause are divided against each other. At root,
> it's a class issue of
> > green and red.
> >
> > Land speculation is a broken machine running an obsolete
> operating system,
> > that's begging to get "rooted."
> >
> > -G
> >
> >
> > =====
> >
> >
> >
> > On 13-06-08-Sat 3:06 PM, Sonja Trauss wrote:
> >
> > I know, it's so outrageous. This line, "The notion of
> smart growth --- also
> > referred to as urban infill --- has been around for
> years, embraced by a
> > certain type of environmentalist, particularly those
> concerned with
> > protecting open space."
> >
> > Yeah, the type of environmentalist that is an
> environmentalist - what is
> > this supposed to mean!
> >
> > Also I guess (I hope) these progressives don't realize
> that in opposing
> > development in Bayview, they are contributing to keeping
> blacks overall
> > poorer than whites.
> >
> > Putting renters aside for a minute, let's consider
> similarly situated black
> > and white homeowners, in similar income black and white
> neighborhoods. If
> > these neighborhoods are in a city that is growing in
> wealth and population
> > (like san francisco) both homeowners should be able to
> look forward to their
> > house values increasing, right? NO. House values at
> first only increase in
> > the white neighborhoods, because the new residents,
> moving to SF from all
> > --
> Eddie Miller, BU '10
> eddiemill at gmail.com | 440-935-5434 <tel:440-935-5434>
> Facebook.com/eddiemill | Twitter.com/eddiemill
>
>
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